If you’ve ever considered betting on a live sports event or fixture, you may have seen the Vegas odds suddenly change which may have left you with more questions than answers. Yet, this isn’t exclusive to live in-game betting as sports markets can change well before kick-off, We look at why these markets are eruptive and susceptible to change.
Changes in the lead-up
Let’s say you’re a big soccer fan and you’re interested in placing a wager on the upcoming match involving the Premier League overlords, Manchester City. In the case of the Sky Blues, they’re odds on favorites to win. They’ve got quite possibly the best manager, an awesome overall team, and that man, Erling Haaland. They’re favourites to win almost every match they play owing to their talent and prior successes.
However, let’s say that Erling Haaland hurts himself in training and can no longer play in a forthcoming match. The Norwegian is such a powerful player, scoring the majority of their goals recently, if he can’t play, while they still have some amazing players to take his place, they become slightly less likely to win. Gambling platforms will reflect that and change the odds accordingly. The same rule applies to suspensions if a key player for Bayern Munich is suspended in their upcoming Bundesliga game, they might not enjoy total dominance of the game.
Team sports aren’t just about the players on the pitch though. In sports like soccer, basketball, and to an extent NFL, the head coaches tend to play a large part in teams’ results. If a franchise isn’t too happy with the performances, they’ll simply fire the head coach. After this, expect a roller-coaster of odds changes as sportsbook operators may think they’ll do better without X manager. Yet, when they appoint Y head coach, the odds might double down if that person doesn’t have a very good track record. I.e. Leeds United, who had three managers throughout the 2022/23 season none of which could save them from relegation.
It’s not just soccer though. Gambling platforms employ hundreds of staff to monitor sports and feed information to their systems so the odds change to reflect the latest information. In tennis, the odds to win Wimbledon might change due to some of the results in the warm-up tournaments. If Novak Djokovic is particularly poor at Queen’s or Rafael Nadal storms to victory at Halle, the odds will change to reflect the latest statistical data. Or if one of these key players withdraws, it’ll drastically bump up the odds for top another player.
In-game fluidity
The majority of gambling platforms spend a lot of money on their software, so it learns everything about a game or fixture as it happens. This allows the odds to change as much or as little as the company desires and it’s why sites like VegasOdds.com who show live updates to odds are becoming so popular with bettors around the world.
Such complex and intelligent systems understand when a player is injured or has been sent off. So if Real Madrid is down to 10 men in the El Classico with more than 30 minutes to play, the odds for Barcelona to win will suddenly drop.
Another good example with lots of moving parts is Formula 1. This motorsport has a lot of variables including tyre management, weather conditions, and track position. Odds will suddenly change in a driver has stayed out on dry tires but heavy rain is expected to descend on the track imminently.
Some of the bigger companies even send out staff to key games and events to update the odds/input information from the sports venue so that they can rely on live information as it happens.
